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Research Areas
IvieLAB. Population Trends and Demographic Projections: Implications for Public Service Needs and Expenditure
Project start date: 2026
Project end date: research in progress
Funding institution: Generalitat Valenciana
Recent demographic developments have placed the Region of Valencia among the fastest-growing autonomous communities in Spain in terms of population. This rapid growth is generating increasing demand for public services, placing additional pressure on the Generalitat Valenciana’s already constrained financial resources. To assess whether these demographic-driven fiscal pressures are likely to persist over time, it is important to analyze the available population projections in detail and well in advance.
This report explores the possibility of disaggregating official population projections by age group and geographical area, using the highest level of territorial detail available, given the importance of these dimensions in shaping demand for public services. Since both population size and demographic structure are key determinants of regional expenditure needs in areas such as education, healthcare, social services, and housing, the report aims to analyze the expected trajectory of the Valencian population and its implications for adjusted population measures and, consequently, for the demand for public services provided by the Generalitat Valenciana.
The study is intended to provide a forward-looking assessment of the demographic factors that will shape future public spending needs, supporting evidence-based planning and policymaking in the region.
RESEARCH TEAM
Universitat de València and Ivie
Ivie
Lucía Laourou