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Temporary Disability in the Valencian Community Represents an Estimated Cost of €7.1 Billion per Year in Terms of GDP

Umivale Activa, Ivie, and CEV present a comprehensive analysis of temporary disability and workplace accident rates in Elche, with a special focus on the Valencian Community

Spain ranks among the EU countries with the highest rate of absenteeism due to temporary disability (TD), and its growth rate is one of the fastest. Between 2018 and 2023, the number of workdays lost under the General Regime increased by 52%, from 242 million to 368.7 million. This surge represents 5.6% of potential annual workdays lost, compared to 4.1% in 2018.

In the Valencian Community, the upward trend is also evident, though slightly below the national average, with a 40% rise since 2018. In 2023, lost workdays due to TD accounted for 5.3% of annual workdays, compared to 3.8% in 2018 (an increase of 1.5 percentage points). By province, the rate reaches 5.5% in València, 5.4% in Castelló and 5% in Alacant.

The potential production loss related to  TD sick days is estimated at €7.1 billion, equivalent to 5.1% of the regional GDP, representing a 48% increase—€2.3 billion more than in 2018.

These figures were presented during the event “Radiografía de la IT en España” (Radiography of temporary disability in Spain), organized by the Business Confederation of the Valencian Community (CEV) in Elche (Alicante), where Umivale Activa and Ivie presented the main findings of their study Evolución de la incapacidad temporal y la siniestralidad en España (Evolution of Temporary Disability and Accident Rates in Spain), with special focus on the results from the Valencian Community. The study, directed by Ivie researchers José María Peiró and Lorenzo Serrano, also included contributions from Ivie team members Francisco J. Goerlich, Consuelo Mínguez, and Fernando Pascual, and from Umivale Activa, Juan Miguel Mesa and Marija Davcheva.

The report draws on anonymized microdata from the TD Statistics of the Spanish Ministry of Inclusion, Social Security and Migration to analyze the evolution of TD between 2016 and 2023. This dataset includes all TD cases recorded in Spain with their characteristics—over 62 million anonymized cases—allowing for an unprecedented level of detail and full representativeness of the phenomenon.

To enrich the analysis, the data  was cross-referenced with microdata from the Continuous Sample of Working Lives (MCVL) and the Active Population Survey (EPA) from the Spanish National Statistics Institute (INE). The combined use of these reliable and well-established data sources allows researchers to explore a wide range of potential determinants of TD and its various manifestations.

Lower Incidence, Longer Sick Leaves in the Valencian Community

The Valencian Community shows slightly more favorable results in terms of the percentage of lost workdays compared to the national average, mainly because the incidence rate (number of new sick leaves per 1,000 workers) is lower than the Spanish average. In 2023, the region recorded 358 new TD cases per 1,000 workers—a 40% increase since 2018. However, the positive effect of lower incidence must be considered alongside the significantly longer average duration of sick leaves (38 days nationally vs. 49 days in the Valencian Community for salaried workers).

Long-term sick leaves in the Valencian Community have grown above the national average, multiplying by 2.2 over the period to reach 15,800 cases in 2023. The prevalence of long-term TD cases reached 8.7 per 1,000 workers—an increase of 94% compared to 2018. Within the region, Castellón has the highest prevalence rate, with 10.8 long-term active cases.

Another key factor contributing to high TD levels is the increase in lost workdays among individuals who experience more than one TD episode within 12 months. In 2023, 46.6% of workers on sick leave in the Valencian Community were repeat cases—a steadily rising figure that almost entirely explains the increase in TD-related absenteeism over the six-year period. Repeat cases represent 12.9% of the protected population and have grown by 72% since 2018. By province, repeat cases account for 13.7% of total workers in València, 12% in Alicante, and 11.6% in Castellón.

Moreover, conditions that are harder to objectively diagnose—such as pain syndromes (lower back pain, neck pain, upper back pain…) and mental health issues—account for more than half of TD-related absenteeism, and their impact continues to grow. These two categories represent 52.7% of TD absenteeism in the Valencian Community.

The study also examines differences in TD figures based on demographic characteristics such as gender and age, occupations, education level, and environmental factors like industry sector. In the Valencian Community, notable data emerge from sectors with significant national weight. For example, the TD rate in the retail sector in Valencia (5.39%) and Castelló (5.68%) exceeds the national average (5.11%). In agriculture—one of the sectors with the lowest TD rate nationally (3.78%)—all three Valencian provinces exceed the sector average: 6.43% in Castellón, 5.85% in Valencia, and 5.48% in Alicante.

Conclusions from Cross-Referencing All Sources

Econometric analysis using data from the Active Population Survey (EPA) shows that, even when controlling for sectoral and territorial environment, personal and job characteristics, there is a significant increase in TD absenteeism. This rise cannot be explained by changes in age, nationality, gender, education level, work schedule or contract type, sector composition, occupation types, or regional employment dynamics. Instead, it likely reflects changes in factors such as workplace culture, labor regulations, TD policies, economic cycles, and unemployment trends. Specifically, the data shows a significant inverse relationship with the unemployment rate: absenteeism tends to decrease as unemployment rises. These changes in unemployment rates explain more than three-quarters of the temporal variability in TD absenteeism. Thus, during economic crises, when unemployment rises and job opportunities decline, workers are more reluctant to take or extend sick leave—while the opposite occurs during economic expansions.

In conclusion, the analysis highlights that repeat sick leaves, the rise in long-term TD cases, and the growth of mental health and pain-related conditions are critical factors in the evolution of temporary disability.

The report issues a clear warning: “Absenteeism due to temporary disability is a major strategic and economic challenge that requires an immediate response, based on scientific evidence and coordinated action from the relevant stakeholders.”  It also warns that “economic crises and unemployment cannot and should not be the means to moderate absenteeism rates due to temporary incapacity; this must come from changes in regulations, working conditions, and work culture.” This is particularly important since “the proper functioning of healthcare resources and the sustainability of the Social Security system is at stake.”