Estimación de la revalorización de las pensiones y del gasto en pensiones en 2026. Serie Estudios de Actualidad

This paper makes a two-part estimate: first, the revaluation of pensions for 2026, and second, using the data, the total amount of pension expenditure for 2026. Regarding the revaluation of pensions, it begins with the ordinary revaluation of contributory pensions for 2026, which will be 2.7% for both Social Security and Civil Service pensions. In addition, it calculates the specific increases for maximum pensions (2.815%, bringing the monthly amount to €3,359.60), minimum pensions with dependents (11.43%) and without dependents (7.07%), and non-contributory pensions (11.34%). With all this data, the average effective revaluation of the system is calculated at 3.44%, which represents approximately €7.311 million. Regarding the estimated pension expenditure, the calculation is based on the previously calculated revaluations and includes two additional effects: a) the expected increase in the number of pensions and b) the replacement effect, which reflects the increase generated by the higher amount of new pensions compared to those that are terminated.It is estimated that total public pension expenditure will reach approximately €229,491 million in 2026, a 5.81% increase compared to 2025. Of this increase, the revaluation accounts for €7,311 million (58% of the total), while the number of pensions and the replacement effect contribute €5,299 million (42% of the total). In macroeconomic terms, this would place expenditure at around 13% of GDP under an assumption of 5% nominal growth in 2026.