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Instituto Valenciano de Investigaciones Económicas

Publicaciones

The recovery of the Spanish mortgage market
Carbó, S. y F. Rodríguez
Fuente: SEFO (Spanish and International Economic & Financial Outlook)
Resumen

Spain’s mortgage market is recovering gradually in the wake of the pandemic, with new transactions outstripping loan repayments. Mortgage lending activity began to register year-on-year growth in April 2021, which has stabilised at around 0.7% in recent months. Average mortgage interest rates are climbing slowly, nudged along by global market trends, and rates could move higher again if the ECB is forced to withdraw its quantitative easing rapidly to curb inflation. Mortgage renegotiations are also on the rise, and we are seeing a rapid switch from floating to fixed-rate mortgages. While it is hard to quantify the potential relationship between monetary policy trends and the Spanish mortgage market, interbank rates –the key benchmark for many floating-rate mortgages– are rising strongly in the eurozone, albeit still in negative territory, which could provide upside support to bank profitability. The mortgage market recovery is, however, very recent, and has not yet consolidated. Lingering and new sources of uncertainty (pandemic, inflation, conflict in Ukraine) are affecting savings and borrowing patterns in ways that are hard to gauge. 2022 could well be a year of stable, yet moderate, growth. It will be worthwhile to monitor potential changes in key variables for this market, including interest rates and inflation.

Cómo citar este artículo

Carbó, S. y F. Rodríguez (2022). «The recovery of the Spanish mortgage market». SEFO – Spanish Economic and Financial Outlook 11, n.º 2 (marzo): 23-29.