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Instituto Valenciano de Investigaciones Económicas

Publicaciones

Tensions in the U.S. and eurozone sovereign
Carbó, S. y F. Rodríguez
Fuente: SEFO (Spanish and International Economic & Financial Outlook)
Resumen
Transatlantic divergence on fiscal and monetary policies have underpinned recent tensions in both the U.S. and eurozone sovereign debt markets. In addition to exhibiting high volatility, in May 2025, 10-year U.S. Treasury yields remained above 4.3%, driven by a high fiscal deficit and rising public debt, accentuated by an exodus by traditional institutional investors and higher activity by price-sensitive players. In the eurozone, the expansionary shift in German fiscal policy —particularly the €100 billion increase in defence spending— has pushed Bund yields to around 2.5% while peripheral country risk premiums had risen somewhat: the Italian risk premium stood at over 100 basis points and the Spanish spread stood at around 65bps. Meanwhile, the ECB has lowered its deposit rate to 2.25%, following six consecutive cuts since mid-2024, and faces the challenge of supporting growth without importing inflation. This combination of factors initially reinforced capital flows to the U.S., strengthening the dollar and increasing global financial fragmentation, but tariffs and uncertainty have ultimately reversed these capital flows and weakened the dollar. Going forward, the lack of economic policy coordination could continue to generate episodes of instability in international financial markets.

Cómo citar este artículo

Carbó, S. y F. Rodríguez (2025). «Tensions in the U.S. and eurozone sovereign». SEFO (Spanish and International Economic & Financial Outlook) 14, n.º 3: 25-30.