BBVA Foundation-Ivie Seminars 2008
Objectives
The last decade has seen many emerging economies participating in world economic growth. This is the case of the biggest Latin American countries. Following the profound crisis at the beginning of the 19th century, these countries have grown over the last five years fuelled by the improvements in terms of trade and prices of exportable commodities. Spain has also sustained intense growth since 1995, although this trajectory has slowed down over the last few months with the end of the expansive cycle of construction and the repercussion of the international financial problems and prices.
Growth makes changes in living standards possible, and taking advantage of the opportunities that arise from these improvements depends mostly on its continuity.
The historical macroeconomic and institutional instability of Latin American Economies casts a shadow of doubt as to whether they are capable of generating a process of long-run sustained growth. Experience shows, however, that transition to more regular growth is possible. In the Spanish case, episodes of sustained growth were more prolonged during the second half of the century than in the past, although the current adjustment crisis is cause for concern. Also worrying is the combination of sources on which the recent Spanish growth has relied on. Unlike other advanced economies which are based on improvements in productivity, Spain is based on accumulation of capital and employment.
Studying the sources of growth and the structural changes that have driven the improvements in productivity over the last few decades is important for two reasons: its analytical relevance and the role it plays in designing economic policies. It is of particular importance to analyse the capacity that Latin American and Spanish economies have of sustaining long-run growth, on the basis of permanent profits from productivity, higher qualifications in their work forces, technological innovation and the increase in their value-added exports. In addition, it is important to analyse how capable the public sector and the financial system are of fostering private investment so that these objectives can be achieved.
The objective of this seminar is to analyse the experiences of growth that have taken place in different Latin American and European countries, in light of the recent research results in the following four areas
- The difference between the economies analysed in the composition of their sources of growth and its changes over time, its causes and consequences.
- Measurement criteria of factors and productivity in light of the methodological and statistical improvements, evaluating to what extent the lack of proper statistics can affect the analysis of growth. The hypotheses used in measurements (Of capital stock, human capital, or natural resources) and the activities considered.
- The causes and consequences of the continuity and discontinuity in growth, analysing the regularity of trajectories, the transitions to potential stationary states and convergence.
- The role of public policies and the financial system in fostering growth, its sources and its regularity
Programme
Monday 6 October
9.00 - 9.30 Opening session
Walter Sosa Escudero, UdeSA
Francisco Pérez, Universitat de València and Ivie
Bernardo Kosacoff, CEPAL, Buenos Aires
9.30 - 11.00: Keynote Address
11.00 - 11.30: Coffee break
11.30 - 13.00: First session
Experiencias de crecimiento: productividad vs incremento de los factores (I)
13.00 - 14.30: Lunch break
14.30 - 16.00: Second session
Experiencias de crecimiento: productividad vs incremento de los factores (II)
16.00 - 16.30: Coffee break
16.30 - 18.30 : Third session
La importancia de la medición en los diagnósticos del crecimiento
18.30: Keynote Address
Introduction: Bernardo Kosacoff, CEPAL, Buenos Aires
"Perspectivas económicas para América Latina"
Martín Redrado, president of the Central Bank of the Argentine Republic
Tuesday, 7 October:
9.00 - 12.00: Fourth session
La continuidad del crecimiento en Argentina
10.30 - 11.00: Coffee break
"El crecimiento de la productividad de la economía argentina. ¿Un hecho estilizado? De la paradoja de Solow a la maldición de los recursos naturales"
Ariel Coremberg,
CEPAL, Buenos Aires-UBA
Paper
Presentation
"The elusive quest for growth in Argentina"
Andrés López,
CENIT, UBA
12.00 - 13.30: Round table:
La financiación de un crecimiento sostenible
Chair: Guillermo Rozenwurcel, UNSAM
Speakers:
Ricardo Bebczuk, National University of La Plata and Central Bank of the Argentine Republic
Jorge Carrera, Central Bank of the Argentine Republic
Fernando Navajas, FIEL
Francisco Pérez, Universitat de València and Ivie
Venue
Auditorio Universidad de San Andrés-Sede capital
25 de Mayo 586
Ciudad de Buenos Aires
Argentina
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